Global Perspective: Central Asian nations are key to Russia’s war in Ukraine

By Yoko Hirose, Keio University Professor

The war in Ukraine has had major impacts on the world, and one of them is the growing presence of the Global South. The concept of Global South is not academically established with so much debate underway over the issue. What is certain, however, is that Russia has been able to keep the Global South on its side, find loopholes for Western sanctions, and avoid international isolation.

In other words, it can be said that the Global South supports Russia’s ability to sustain warfare and holds the key to the war in Ukraine. The Global South tends to seek to obtain the greatest national interest by making the best choice at the time, while maintaining a balanced diplomacy without taking sides with the West, China or Russia. They do not always share the values and norms of the West, and often maintain close relations with China and Russia.

Only 40 countries or so have joined the sanctions against Russia, and many still trade with Russia and enjoy cheap energy and food supplies such as wheat, especially after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Many of these countries have abstained from or opposed resolutions condemning Russia at the United Nations, and have tended to avoid criticizing Russia. In short, the group supports Russia economically, politically, and spiritually. Therefore, peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved without the cooperation of the Global South.

Needless to say, a cease-fire is an urgent task in the protracted war, but the hurdles for achieving the goal are high. First, as the terms of the cease-fire between both Russia and Ukraine diverge, it is necessary to construct a cease-fire plan acceptable to both sides. Naturally, concessions on both sides will be necessary. Then there is the second issue — how to ensure that the cease-fire is adhered to. An international system that with coercive force Russia to abide by the cease-fire is essential, and it is also necessary to prevent the emergence of actors who support Russia’s rearmament. It is impossible to maintain a cease-fire unless all nations, including the Global South, accept the cease-fire proposal and cooperate in complying with it.

The Global South stands large over peace in Ukraine. That is why Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky called for the participation of the Global South in the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland in June.

At that time, Zelensky particularly strongly sought to engage with Central Asian countries that are economically growing members of the Global South. Countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus of the former Soviet Union substantially support Russia’s ability to continue the war, and peace in Ukraine cannot be realized without their cooperation. Unfortunately, no country in Central Asia participated in the gathering out of consideration for Russia.

From last year to this year, I conducted field research in six countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus. The war in Ukraine cannot be understood without looking at the entire former Soviet Union. These countries enjoyed “special war demands” and enjoyed economic growth. Factors behind this boom included assets brought in by immigrants from Russia, contributions to the creation of new businesses and technological improvements by Russians with knowledge of IT and finance, and tourism income from the massive influx of Russia tourists who had been traveling to Europe and the United States before the war.

In addition, these countries have formed a structure supporting Russia’s circumvention of sanctions by the West. Russia cannot import from the West, but if the former Soviet Union countries import goods from Europe and the United States and export them to Russia, Russia can trade quite freely, and the former Soviet Union countries can also profit economically from the intermediate margin. Particularly noteworthy is the massive import of home appliances, and Russia extracts semiconductors and electronic chips from refrigerators, washing machines, etc., rewrites the parts, and reuses them in the war. They cannot be used to manufacture new weapons due to their limited performance, but they are used for military purposes such as repairing damaged weapons.

The support Russia receives from those countries of the former Soviet Union in continuing the war is substantial. Last year, Europe and the United States threatened to impose secondary sanctions on the former Soviet countries, and it prompted some of them to take steps to strengthen monitoring of trade with Russia and reduce economic relations. However, it is not easy for them to completely sever relations with Moscow because Russia can use economic, energy, and even “intimidation” leverages against its neighbors.

Many countries have close economic ties with Russia. In Tajikistan, for example, remittances from migrants to Russia account for 34% of its gross domestic product. In such countries, migrants to Russia support the economy. In addition to being the primary supplier of oil and natural gas to several former Soviet countries, Russia also controls nuclear power plants in former Soviet countries, and a deterioration in relations could pose a major risk to energy security.

Moreover, Russia tends to maintain its influence by stoking up minor problems within those nations and disrupting their pro-Western policies. This method has been used in the current war in Ukraine. As part of its hybrid warfare, Moscow continues to provoke countries with internal problems and its intimidation has become an effective means of keeping them within its sphere of influence. In particular, in the case of Moldova, Ukraine’s western neighbor, if Russia intervenes militarily in the country, there is a possibility that the Russian troops would invade Ukraine and the Black Sea from the western flank. “Intimidation” is also affecting the fighting of the Ukraine war itself.

Supporting Central Asian countries to stand on their own

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will travel to Kazakhstan this month for his first meeting with the leaders of five Central Asian countries.* The “Central Asia + Japan” dialogue that Japan has been holding since 2004 was the world’s first attempt to engage them. In recent years, China, Russia, Europe and the United States have been promoting similar dialogue frameworks, but it is worth pointing out that Japan is a pioneer in this regard, and that Central Asian countries have extremely high expectations for Tokyo.

Russia may be aware of this and is vigorously waging anti-Japanese information warfare in Central Asia, but Japan should strengthen its presence and indirectly cooperate with the peace process in Ukraine while providing assistance to the Central Asian countries to support their true independence.

*Footnote: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida canceled his trip to Central Asia and held separate phone talks with each leader, after the Japanese original of this commentary was published.

Biographical note

Born in 1972, Yoko Hirose completed the University of Tokyo’s doctoral course requirements and obtained a Ph.D. in media and governance from Keio University. A specialist in the politics of the former Soviet Union, Professor Hirose has served as an adviser to the Japanese government’s national security secretariat. Her publications include “Caucasus: Crossroads of international relations,” which won the Asia-Pacific Award’s special prize from the Asian Affairs Research Council, and “The Hybrid war: Russia’s new national strategy,” among many others.